Russian society mobilizes against Putin, he tries to escape anger of Russian people by new war

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Despite some territorial advances on the front in Ukraine and overall economic stability for now, Russia has found itself in a strategic dead end. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is likely interested in changing the nature of the confrontation with the West, writes Andrei Kolesnikov, a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, in an opinion piece for Foreign Affairs .

He notes that by resorting to brute military force, Putin has lost soft power, and now Russia’s influence in the former Soviet Union is weakening. By talking about his intention to keep NATO away from Russia’s borders, Putin has provoked the expansion of the alliance, which has included neighboring Finland. At the same time, Russia is increasingly feeling the economic consequences of excessive spending on war.

“Having led the country this far, it is unclear whether Putin and his team will be able to go back. Demilitarizing the economy and demobilizing the public would risk undermining the system that supports his rule,” Kolesnikov writes.

According to the analyst, Putin needs a war that would continue to mobilize public opinion in support of the regime, but without the dangerous costs that undermine the stability of the entire political and economic system.

“Despite the fact that it will cost Putin just as much to end the special operation as to continue it, there is a way out: he can continue the constant war against the West – with cold, not hot means. The main thing is to avoid the feeling of even partial defeat,” the analyst believes.

At the same time, Kolesnikov notes that Russia does not have sufficient material and demographic resources to completely capture Ukraine. And without Ukraine, there can be no talk of restoring the Russian Empire, which Putin is striving for.

According to former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, ending the war in Ukraine is entirely possible this year . But for this to happen, the West must continue to put pressure on Russia. “Wars are by their nature unpredictable. That’s why I’m very cautious in predicting what exactly will happen in 2025. But ending this war this year is entirely possible,” he said during a panel discussion titled “A Peace Formula for Ukraine,” Radio Liberty reports .

The former Secretary General noted that Russia is paying an extremely high price for its aggression: it is losing about 1,000 troops daily, has a 21 percent interest rate, 10 percent inflation, and an acute labor shortage due to the mass exodus of citizens and losses at the front. “Now is not the time to reduce the pressure on Russia. On the contrary, it is the time to increase it in order to persuade them to sit down at the negotiating table and agree on a fair peace,” Stoltenberg added.

He warned against attempts to quickly end the war at the cost of concessions from Ukraine:

“The fastest way to end a war is to lose it. But that won’t bring peace, it will bring occupation of Ukraine.”

In turn, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak confirmed his readiness to work with the new US administration on a just peace. He noted that Ukraine will not compromise on its independence and territorial integrity.
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